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Mercaptan 12-13-2018 12:02 AM

Projected Ship Dates (A statistical analysis)
Hey Folks!

Didn't get a number yet? Wondering when it might come?
Updated on 08JAN2019

Notice the break between 12/20 and 1/3. I have therefore broken the regression into two stages; 2018 and 2019. The 2019 projection assumes the same rate of number assignments we were seeing in November/December, an altogether reasonable assumption. Note that numbers likely to receive a 1911 (8000-9000) won't go out until April/May timeline!

Initial assessment: As you can see the regression for this is much tighter - we have more data and more lottery numbers assigned (versus those shipped). I did two regressions; one of the entire dataset (11/1 onwards) and another chunk after 11/10, where there was an inflection (rapid change of slope) that indicated an odd event. Because we are assuming they started at #1000, I have provided the estimate for #7500 (assumes 6500 pistols for sale). This means lottery numbers will continue going out into March!
  • CMP sent out at least 150 notices each on 11/5 and 12/4. Kudos guys and gals. We appreciate it!
  • Most work days are averaging around 75 notices sent out.

Already assigned a number and having fun waiting for your CMP 1911 like I am?
Updated as of 22JAN2019.

A long overdue update with regard to shipped pistols. There were no reports of pistols shipped between 12/27 and 1/9 that I could find. This delayed things slightly.

I've included two regressions. The solid black line is all the data, from 11/9 - 1/22. The dashed black line represents the peak ship volume (all pistols shipped between 12/1 and 12/20). I have extrapolated this ship rate with a center on January 16th using averaged ship data.

The "early" ship date is if CMP 1911 can keep up a December ship rate, which is unlikely. The "expected" ship date is using all data. My guess is... your pistol will ship about 3-9 days after the "early" ship date for the next several hundred orders.

Click on the image for a linear regression using the data I've sifted from this forum. Basically, we can approximately predict when your pistol will ship with this information, +/- a few days.

You'll note a couple of things about this data set:
  1. Few data points early-on
  2. Slow shipping rates prior to Thanksgiving
  3. More rapid fulfillment post-Thanksgiving

Because of this I broke the regression into two parts, the solid line (all data) and the dashed line (data after 12/1 only). This results in two projected ship dates in the bottom right corner; the expected (solid line) and early guestimate (dashed line).

Given time off with the upcoming holidays, I suspect the solid line equation will be more accurate in the near-future (through Q1 of 2019). If there are only 6500 pistols, I project somewhere between July to August for the last shipment.

Notes and Other:
I data-mined the following threads to create this information:

Data acceptance criteria:
  • Must have a full and complete lottery number (none of this 12XX business)
  • Must have a valid ship date (not receive date, not phone call, etc.)

Hey, my pistol didn't ship based on what you said!
- Not really a question, more of a statement. Statistics are funny this way. Nothing is absolute, but this is a pretty good guess. No guarantees are made with this model. Please don't contact the beleaguered CMP and tell them they're behind schedule and use this as 'evidence.'

How can I help?
- Great! Please fill out your information with a lottery number and ship date (if applicable) in the stickied 1911 order thread. I'll update this model as more pistols ship, because more data = better predictions.

What's my exact ship date?
- The equations are in the figure above. If you want to go with the solid line estimate, perform the following calculation:


Date = (Order Number+839501)/19.361
That date is a serial date (# days past 01 January, 1900), and you will need to convert it into a more reasonable format.

If you have excel, take this serial date and enter into a cell

where 123456 is your serial date.

LHS905 12-13-2018 12:13 AM


Quicksilvergoat 12-13-2018 12:27 AM

I’d like to see your analysis of when everyone will have their number.

Todd 12-13-2018 12:33 AM

Mercaptan, can we call you the mathman, j/k. Great work

Mercaptan 12-13-2018 01:49 AM


Originally Posted by Quicksilvergoat (Post 1782565)
Id like to see your analysis of when everyone will have their number.

Good call. I added a regression for this in the original post.

Ohio Don 12-13-2018 03:25 AM

Now why would someone want a name that is known for a rotten egg smell in natural gas piping? ;)

Interesting data analysis.

siegfried 12-13-2018 05:52 AM

Looks like an excellent fit on the trend line, thanks for the excellent analysis Mercaptan. I am #1833 and it looks like my number is almost up in the non-mortality sense.

fiftycal2004 12-13-2018 06:57 AM

This is excellent! I know some Ph.D.s that can’t get R squard values like that. CMP1911 is definitely staying on top of it!

Quicksilvergoat 12-13-2018 08:56 AM


Originally Posted by Mercaptan (Post 1782571)
Good call. I added a regression for this in the original post.


cranehunter 12-13-2018 10:03 AM

A lot of nice work there, but I am going to stick with my magic 8 ball. Just as accurate for something like this where can be changes made to the process at any time.

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