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Projected Ship Dates (A statistical analysis)
Hey Folks!
Didn't get a number yet? Wondering when it might come? Updated on 08JAN2019 Notice the break between 12/20 and 1/3. I have therefore broken the regression into two stages; 2018 and 2019. The 2019 projection assumes the same rate of number assignments we were seeing in November/December, an altogether reasonable assumption. Note that numbers likely to receive a 1911 (80009000) won't go out until April/May timeline! Initial assessment: As you can see the regression for this is much tighter  we have more data and more lottery numbers assigned (versus those shipped). I did two regressions; one of the entire dataset (11/1 onwards) and another chunk after 11/10, where there was an inflection (rapid change of slope) that indicated an odd event. Because we are assuming they started at #1000, I have provided the estimate for #7500 (assumes 6500 pistols for sale). This means lottery numbers will continue going out into March!
Already assigned a number and having fun waiting for your CMP 1911 like I am? Updated as of 22JAN2019. A long overdue update with regard to shipped pistols. There were no reports of pistols shipped between 12/27 and 1/9 that I could find. This delayed things slightly. I've included two regressions. The solid black line is all the data, from 11/9  1/22. The dashed black line represents the peak ship volume (all pistols shipped between 12/1 and 12/20). I have extrapolated this ship rate with a center on January 16th using averaged ship data. The "early" ship date is if CMP 1911 can keep up a December ship rate, which is unlikely. The "expected" ship date is using all data. My guess is... your pistol will ship about 39 days after the "early" ship date for the next several hundred orders. Click on the image for a linear regression using the data I've sifted from this forum. Basically, we can approximately predict when your pistol will ship with this information, +/ a few days. You'll note a couple of things about this data set:
Because of this I broke the regression into two parts, the solid line (all data) and the dashed line (data after 12/1 only). This results in two projected ship dates in the bottom right corner; the expected (solid line) and early guestimate (dashed line). Given time off with the upcoming holidays, I suspect the solid line equation will be more accurate in the nearfuture (through Q1 of 2019). If there are only 6500 pistols, I project somewhere between July to August for the last shipment. Notes and Other: I datamined the following threads to create this information:
Data acceptance criteria:
Questions: Hey, my pistol didn't ship based on what you said!  Not really a question, more of a statement. Statistics are funny this way. Nothing is absolute, but this is a pretty good guess. No guarantees are made with this model. Please don't contact the beleaguered CMP and tell them they're behind schedule and use this as 'evidence.' How can I help?  Great! Please fill out your information with a lottery number and ship date (if applicable) in the stickied 1911 order thread. I'll update this model as more pistols ship, because more data = better predictions. What's my exact ship date?  The equations are in the figure above. If you want to go with the solid line estimate, perform the following calculation: Quote:
If you have excel, take this serial date and enter into a cell Quote:
Last edited by Mercaptan; 01232019 at 12:33 AM. Reason: Updated on 22JAN2019 
#2




Nice!

#3




I’d like to see your analysis of when everyone will have their number.

#4




Mercaptan, can we call you the mathman, j/k. Great work

#5




Good call. I added a regression for this in the original post.

#6




Now why would someone want a name that is known for a rotten egg smell in natural gas piping?
Interesting data analysis.
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#7




Looks like an excellent fit on the trend line, thanks for the excellent analysis Mercaptan. I am #1833 and it looks like my number is almost up in the nonmortality sense.

#8




This is excellent! I know some Ph.D.s that can’t get R squard values like that. CMP1911 is definitely staying on top of it!

#9




Thanks

#10




A lot of nice work there, but I am going to stick with my magic 8 ball. Just as accurate for something like this where can be changes made to the process at any time.

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