Projected Ship Dates (A statistical analysis)

[Deppizzymo]

Sticky this please. Great work

[Shomway]

From what I have read the biggest factor is the available amount of inspected and graded pistols that are ready for shipping....an unknown number. How fast are they inspecting and grading these pistols? Another unknown. Prior to the first shipped on Oct 25th only 600 pistol had been inspectesd.

Everyone is throwing out the 8000 number, yes that is how many we received but is not how many will be available for sale and this includes, customer sales & auction sales. From what I have seen so far my guess will be about 6500 this go around. We have been through +/- 600 so far and +/- 76 are only good for parts. We still have 7400 to work.

http://forums.thecmp.org/showpost.ph...&postcount=133

[xd9x19]

I hope the OP will keep updating the data just to keep us entertained as things move forward.

[Laphroaig]

Nice bit o’ Excel work. I was thinking of something similar myself.

The timing difference is easily explained since there is a lot more work and uncertainty in getting to the “phone call” than merely assigning a RNG to a packet and emailing the sender.

If the OP continues to update this there is no need to make it a sticky.

[SDCoff]

This RNG analysis is spot on for mine (2586 rec’d on 11/28). Hoping the second phase is as well in which case I’m looking at late Jan. Thanks

[Mercaptan]

I hope to update this on a weekly basis - maybe convert it into a google docs spreadsheet so people can enter their information and so I won't have to monitor all data.

Another item to add variability in the shipping (increases the model variance) is the time frame that people have to contact the CMP and confirm shipping/CC/FFL. This could be as quick as a few minutes or up to the 5 day limit. Thus the model can only be 'so good' especially when we only have an n=33 thus far.

[Dingsbums]

So, for those of us that don't make the lottery this year, the earliest we will find out is February or March? Dangit, I may have to consider another M1 then. A tax refund should be coming about that time if I do make it.

[Mike OTDP]

Nice, but I would expect a break between 21 December and 2 January.

[CoalTrain49]

Originally Posted by Dingsbums

So, for those of us that don't make the lottery this year, the earliest we will find out is February or March? Dangit, I may have to consider another M1 then. A tax refund should be coming about that time if I do make it.

And that will be a considerable number of people, about 11K. Even with the 2019 allotment of 10K that still leaves a few people out.

I'm not complaining, it is what it is and the folks who were able to snag one in this first lottery should feel pretty lucky.

I'm actually surprised we made it this far.

[Berzirkey]

The "Order Number" in your equation is the random number the CMP sent to us. Just making that clear for anyone it throws off.