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  #1  
Old 10-29-2019, 10:52 AM
Jimbo80 Jimbo80 is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 18
Default How high will it go? 10K?

I was surprised to get the call at 9503. As we approach 9900 I have been thinking about how and why we got here when you consider there were less than 8K guns to start. Some of the stories of the 2K that didn't get guns have got to be interesting.
  #2  
Old 10-29-2019, 11:08 AM
TW56 TW56 is offline
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Minnesota
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I am hoping for the very low 10,000’s rgn.
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  #3  
Old 10-29-2019, 11:28 AM
Strick Strick is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 280
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Incomplete apps, missed calls and those who decided for whatever reason they did not want one...
  #4  
Old 10-29-2019, 11:29 AM
microwaveguy microwaveguy is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: South SF Bay Area
Posts: 943
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Well 1000 could be explained by the theory that the RNG's starting at 1001. The rest is all speculation , BUT I know of one guy that passed since turning in his package . I know of one guy on the board that got a call after purchasing one on the auction site. Then the usual ones where 1) no money when called , 2)failed background check 3) didn't call back when they did get a phone call 4) really wanted a service grade and only rack grade where available. I am sure there are more reasons but these come off the top of the head.

Only the CMP knows for sure and we don't have a high enough clearance to know that information.
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  #5  
Old 10-29-2019, 11:32 AM
buck_hunter50 buck_hunter50 is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: ND
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbo80 View Post
I was surprised to get the call at 9503. As we approach 9900 I have been thinking about how and why we got here when you consider there were less than 8K guns to start. Some of the stories of the 2K that didn't get guns have got to be interesting.
I'm sure #1 is people didn't have the money when they were contacted so they declined. #2 I'm sure is the contacted person didn't respond to email or voicemail soon enough.

Other possible reasons: weren't offered the grade they had their hearts set on so they declined (I likely would have declined a rack-only option), returned the gun as they weren't satisfied with what they received, 8000 guns were actually 8,499 and the press release rounded down, hubby passed on the second order as the wife got one, duplicate aps that all got an RNG before being discovered/weeded out, some sort of death blow in their packet 'missing too much', death of applicant, couldn't pass the background check, RNG probably started at 1000, and lastly LIFE might've simply gotten in the way for many.

Add all of that up, and it doesn't surprise me they're approaching RNG 10,000.
  #6  
Old 10-29-2019, 12:51 PM
Aflyer111 Aflyer111 is offline
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Delavan, WI
Posts: 73
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It's been almost 13 months since the last packets have been accepted. I know since I mailed off the packet our family has had 3 major surgeries(including me), picked up a new car, and bought a house.(not to mention other acquired firearms). A lot of people can't remember what they did last week much less have $1000 sitting around that long. Also I'm sure many people who put in multiple packets within their family for the chance at 1 pistol when there were 75k orders speculated, those who thought they were getting mint matching pistols, and speculators who planned on doubling their $$ on gunbroker passed as the process progressed.

Last edited by Aflyer111; 10-29-2019 at 03:59 PM.
  #7  
Old 10-29-2019, 02:21 PM
danduf98 danduf98 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: White House, TN
Posts: 152
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just wait for the next rand report!
  #8  
Old 10-29-2019, 02:29 PM
BSAGuy BSAGuy is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Piedmont NC
Posts: 312
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My estimate, without boring ya'll with the math, is +/- 10,400. It will be interesting where the last RN falls and fingers crossed for another allocation soon.
  #9  
Old 10-29-2019, 06:16 PM
jsweaver jsweaver is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Georgia
Posts: 408
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I will take a stab at an estimate as well. It was cheap and easy to get excited about the 1911's when they first came out. I would not be surprised that as many as 1/3 of those initially wanting one change their mind. So assuming starting with RNG1000, I am projecting a final RNG of 11,600. Still not high enough for me.
  #10  
Old 10-29-2019, 06:22 PM
pacwa pacwa is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Celina,TX. 75009
Posts: 225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsweaver View Post
I will take a stab at an estimate as well. It was cheap and easy to get excited about the 1911's when they first came out. I would not be surprised that as many as 1/3 of those initially wanting one change their mind. So assuming starting with RNG1000, I am projecting a final RNG of 11,600. Still not high enough for me.
I second that I'm 11128
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