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  #31  
Old 01-10-2019, 08:53 AM
mjtcpa mjtcpa is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Southern Plains
Posts: 2
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Nice work.

Assuming that the CMP continues constant staffing of the RNG notification process and the process is not changed. Based upon your initial projections, the RNG notification process will not be complete for the entire 19,000 +/- packets until some time in early/mid 2020.

I believe that most of us on this forum understood that the CMP estimate that notification of RNG would be complete in 60/90 days was not true based upon the information posted on this forum.

Based upon information gathered from this forum, it seems that the RNG notification process, along with the shipment notification process, is labor intensive rather than utilizing technology. Think of multiple banker boxes of packets with packet numbers on the exterior, a person searching and pulling individual packets based upon a sequential number from an Excel spreadsheet, extracting an email address from each packet, sending an email one at a time, etc.

Unless the process is changed, or significant labor resources are added, the RNG notification trickle cannot change. Even with additional labor resources it will not be complete in 2019, i.e., law of diminishing returns.


Thank you for the work.

Last edited by mjtcpa; 01-10-2019 at 10:47 AM.
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  #32  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:38 AM
Texxut Texxut is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 11
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MJTCPA, You may be absolutely correct in your assessment of this monumental task, facing the "CMP1911" Team.
Keep in mind, that half of Congress didn't even want this to happen, and so placed numerous restrictions and requirements on "CMP1911". As far as it taking 60 to 90 days for the #s, you know how estimates go, you don't really know, how involved an operation will be, until you get to the nuts and bolts of it. I do think it will go faster then it's moving now, because, as the inspection of the pistols is completed, (they have a finite number , 8000?) those man hours can be allocated to other ongoing tasks.
Now, remember, I am not "in the know or part of the inter workings of the CMP1911", this is just my opinion based on my own experience with large and complicated tasks. Take it with a grain of salt.
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  #33  
Old 01-10-2019, 05:13 PM
ihcgarand ihcgarand is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 183
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appreciate it. so im looking at end of march ish. #3900
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  #34  
Old 01-14-2019, 02:07 PM
Todd Todd is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Talent OR
Posts: 88
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Well hope they start calling 2300 numbers this week
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  #35  
Old 01-14-2019, 10:07 PM
bevo2222 bevo2222 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Texas
Posts: 119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd View Post
Well hope they start calling 2300 numbers this week
Should be soon. I have 2283 and I received the call today. Feedback for Mercaptan, your predicted contact date for my number was spot on.
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  #36  
Old 01-14-2019, 10:47 PM
Todd Todd is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Talent OR
Posts: 88
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Thanks bevo2222 for the update
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  #37  
Old 01-15-2019, 01:36 AM
Mercaptan Mercaptan is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bevo2222 View Post
Should be soon. I have 2283 and I received the call today. Feedback for Mercaptan, your predicted contact date for my number was spot on.
Glad to hear it. Hope you enjoy your pistol! I'll update the ship date regressions this weekend as it looks like there will be enough data to play around with.

I don't expect the number assignment prediction to change dramatically unless the staffing / verification efficiency drastically changes. Even if the forecast is off by a couple of weeks for the 19,000 packets, that's not bad - statistically speaking.
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  #38  
Old 01-17-2019, 03:02 PM
Todd Todd is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Talent OR
Posts: 88
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Mercapt, #2361 was called 1/17/19 @ 1148 pst. You were right on.
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  #39  
Old 01-17-2019, 05:23 PM
Volfenhag22 Volfenhag22 is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Wyoming, NY
Posts: 119
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Makes perfect sense they’d want to have enough staff to be able to notify/ship the 10,000 pistol max per year, not over staff to slam them all out in a month then have to lay everyone off.
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  #40  
Old 01-23-2019, 12:34 AM
Mercaptan Mercaptan is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 8
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Updated the shipping dates with new data through 1/22/2019. Dates have shifted out about a week for shipped pistols, so it looks like I won't receive my 1911 on my birthday per the original calculation. Drat.

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