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-   -   Garand availability 2021 and beyond (http://forums.thecmp.org/showthread.php?t=281546)

TripC75 05-10-2021 01:56 PM

I was asking myself this same question a few weeks ago when I decided to place an order for a few more M1's. It was about 2 weeks before they listed the Service Grades as Sold out. So I did a bit of research a few weeks ago.

This was in the GAO report to congress in February of 2019 -

"According to CMP, as of August 16, 2018, it had 228,791 rifles on hand, of which CMP identified 148,714 as being in sellable condition."

It also stated that ~100K rifles were recovered and transferred to CMP from the Philippines and Turkey from February 2018 through April 2018 so it could be argued that these were included in the number above.

The report also states that 203,644 M1's were transferred to the CMP from 2008 through 2017 (Does not include the 100k above).

Assuming that they haven't received any additional M1's since the report, make your guess as to how many they sell in a year or month, and assuming they don't get any more in you can figure out how long they will last based on your assumptions.

I won't be doing any assuming for anyone...:)

If you want to read the report yourself just Google "CMP Garand GAO" and it should be the 2nd one that pops up. Date is 2/14/19. It is actually a pretty interesting read.

Tennboy 05-10-2021 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TSimonetti (Post 2043950)
Your percentage chance of getting a non-speculative answer to your question is pert near zero

Ha! Lol, but I think TripC75 nailed it.

32sbct 05-10-2021 08:14 PM

I attended the AMC in February of 2017. At that time the Turkish returns were being sold and the rifles from the Philippines were were still stacked in crates. Mark Johnson visited the class and I asked him how long he thought the current inventory would last based on average sales per year. His reply was that he felt they had a five year supply in house. So his best guess of five years would last until sometime in 2022. However, there seems to be more demand lately so this would change things. I would think that unless additional rifles are returned from overseas the supply would start to dwindle in the next couple of years.

krdomingue 05-10-2021 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 32sbct (Post 2044064)
I attended the AMC in February of 2017. At that time the Turkish returns were being sold and the rifles from the Philippines were were still stacked in crates. Mark Johnson visited the class and I asked him how long he thought the current inventory would last based on average sales per year. His reply was that he felt they had a five year supply in house. So his best guess of five years would last until sometime in 2022. However, there seems to be more demand lately so this would change things. I would think that unless additional rifles are returned from overseas the supply would start to dwindle in the next couple of years.

The key to that is "current inventory". While they may have not gotten any big return groups, there is some evidence that they have been receiving smaller batches from somewhere. One example is that over the last year or two there have been several examples of rifles with Danish attributes showing up.

That being said, enjoy it now, because when they are gone, they are gone.

Ronwall 05-10-2021 09:05 PM

I wonder how many US owned rifles they could have or will eventually have. A few years ago there was a large batch of serialized asset tagged rifles that allegedly came from storage at Anniston and last year alone at south store I bought two US Army and one USMC rifles with serialized tags so those tags alone serves as undeniable evidence that there are still US owned rifles that was or is in storage somewhere.

jason60chev 05-10-2021 11:07 PM

If you want one or two. Thee, order now or save up quick! I have18, including Italian
Variants. I think I have my share.

TripC75 05-10-2021 11:29 PM

Additional Info from the GAO Report
 
Some additional info that I dug up.

Sales of CMP rifles were:
~46,500 in 2008
~45,500 in 2009
~36,000 in 2010
~31,000 in 2011
~39,000 in 2012
~32,500 in 2013
~24,000 in 2014
~19,000 in 2015
~16,000 in 2016, and
~15,000 in 2017

You can do your own math...my math says:
- If you assume ~15k per year in sales similar to 2016 and 2017 then the 148k that they had on hand as of August of 2018 would last not quite 10 years...so we are good until ~2028 :)
- if you assume ~30k per year (the average sold each year from 2008 through 2017) then the 148k would last about 5 years...so all gone by the end of 2023 :mad:

All the above assumes they have not and will not receive any additional rifles past the 2018 date.

I am just doing math on public data...not giving any opinion.

Make whatever assumptions make you happy...But I think the published data is pretty useful in helping to come to informed conclusions.

retafchief 05-11-2021 11:24 AM

Did it say if that was the total sales of all rifles, or just M1 Garands?

Capt.Tom 05-11-2021 11:30 AM

Are all of the current M1s for sale from the Philippines?

TripC75 05-11-2021 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retafchief (Post 2044178)
Did it say if that was the total sales of all rifles, or just M1 Garands?

It is all rifles. But there is also data on the rifles transferred to CMP. 93%+ were M1's so I think it's safe to say that 90%+ of the sales are M1's.


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