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-   -   The OFFICIAL RGN Discussion thread (http://forums.thecmp.org/showthread.php?t=279935)

usriflecaliber.30m1 06-25-2021 07:55 PM

Using 156 data points from the Round 2 Order thread, here is my prediction for Date of Contact with an R^2 of 0.939 (out of 1.00)(very strong correlation).

RGN Date
23000 6/27/2021
24000 7/24/2021
25000 8/21/2021
26000 9/18/2021
27000 10/15/2021
28000 11/12/2021
29000 12/9/2021
30000 1/6/2022
31000 2/3/2022
32000 3/2/2022
33000 3/30/2022
34000 4/26/2022
35000 5/24/2022


https://i.postimg.cc/J062w6jr/1911-6-25.png

Splashmonster18 06-26-2021 12:53 AM

usriflecaliber.30m1, our observations seem to correspond,, on 5-19 I guessed that I'll get the call on or about 9-23..

Remington92, I'll trade you, your 24XXX for my 26199...even up. :D

FlyingT 06-26-2021 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by usriflecaliber.30m1 (Post 2057686)
Using 156 data points from the Round 2 Order thread, here is my prediction for Date of Contact with an R^2 of 0.939 (out of 1.00)(very strong correlation).

RGN Date
23000 6/27/2021
24000 7/24/2021
25000 8/21/2021
26000 9/18/2021
27000 10/15/2021
28000 11/12/2021
29000 12/9/2021
30000 1/6/2022
31000 2/3/2022
32000 3/2/2022
33000 3/30/2022
34000 4/26/2022
35000 5/24/2022


https://i.postimg.cc/J062w6jr/1911-6-25.png

Very cool analysis. My minute-of-thumb shot in April was that with a number just shy of 31k, I would get the call on Valentine's day. Not nearly as scientific, but that guess is within a couple weeks of your estimate.

If only all my first estimated-range shots were that close.

http://forums.thecmp.org/showthread....33#post2037733

Eastwood 06-26-2021 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Remington92 (Post 2057728)
Oooof at just shy of 25k that hurt to see


When I put my order in, I thought it might be a year or two before I got the call. At 25013 Iím pleased to hopefully be called this year!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

DP68 06-26-2021 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by usriflecaliber.30m1 (Post 2057686)
Using 156 data points from the Round 2 Order thread, here is my prediction for Date of Contact

Should probably factor in November (Thanksgiving) and December/January (Christmas/New Year) will probably be slower months for shipments considering

Fenris_Bane 06-28-2021 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by usriflecaliber.30m1 (Post 2057686)
Using 156 data points from the Round 2 Order thread, here is my prediction for Date of Contact with an R^2 of 0.939 (out of 1.00)(very strong correlation).

RGN Date
23000 6/27/2021
24000 7/24/2021
25000 8/21/2021
26000 9/18/2021
27000 10/15/2021
28000 11/12/2021
29000 12/9/2021
30000 1/6/2022
31000 2/3/2022
32000 3/2/2022
33000 3/30/2022
34000 4/26/2022
35000 5/24/2022

Interesting, I have amassed data from 230 posted full random number listed from 20,006 to 22,980. Of these 230 full random numbers, 211 have reported being contacted (91.7%).

Excel said my R^2+.9609. My dates are about the same as yours. I adjusted them to exclude Saturday and Sunday because contacts are not made on those days.

23000 Friday, June 25, 2021
24000 Wednesday, July 21, 2021
25000 Monday, August 16, 2021
26000 Friday, September 10, 2021
27000 Thursday, October 7, 2021
28000 Tuesday, November 2, 2021
29000 Monday, November 29, 2021
30000 Friday, December 24, 2021
31000 Thursday, January 20, 2022
32000 Tuesday, February 15, 2022
33000 Monday, March 14, 2022
34000 Friday, April 8, 2022
35000 Wednesday, May 4, 2022

I need to adjust the graph and data to only include business days. Also the big IF in all of this beside the holidays, it the supply of pistols on hand.

Additionally, the CMP could only have a maximum 19,000 pistols available by the end of FY 21 (Sept. 30, 2021). However, the amount they have available may be substantially less that that amount.

USMC-Nav 06-28-2021 02:52 PM

23005 called today
Rack and Field offered
Chose Field

terry_b 06-28-2021 03:05 PM

just got off the phone with Ali from CMP

RGN 23024
Offered Field and Rack, took Field

wojownik 06-28-2021 03:42 PM

Huzzah! This is the day I've been waiting for ... only about 10,000 more until my number is called! ;^) Go CMP go !

Quote:

Originally Posted by USMC-Nav (Post 2058400)
23005 called today
Rack and Field offered
Chose Field


terry_b 06-28-2021 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wojownik (Post 2058419)
Huzzah! This is the day I've been waiting for ... only about 10,000 more until my number is called! ;^) Go CMP go !


Think positive! Just imagine how much more valuable these 1911's will be when you get yours! and at the old price!:D


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