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  #581  
Old 07-23-2021, 05:06 AM
CPO-Sharky CPO-Sharky is offline
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: PA
Posts: 18
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I'm 23,738 and after seeing 23,500's being called last week, I figured it would be this week. Well this week there were hardly any numbers reported as being called and just finally saw a 23,600 yesterday so hopefully it will be next week.
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  #582  
Old 07-23-2021, 06:39 AM
GeoDes GeoDes is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Posts: 4
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RGN 23584 was called yesterday. Offered rack and field. Selected field. Told the FFL should receive today.
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  #583  
Old 07-23-2021, 11:12 AM
yoteman yoteman is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: MN
Posts: 1,125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usriflecaliber.30m1 View Post
Using 156 data points from the Round 2 Order thread, here is my prediction for Date of Contact with an R^2 of 0.939 (out of 1.00)(very strong correlation).

RGN Date
23000 6/27/2021
24000 7/24/2021
25000 8/21/2021
26000 9/18/2021
27000 10/15/2021
28000 11/12/2021
29000 12/9/2021
30000 1/6/2022
31000 2/3/2022
32000 3/2/2022
33000 3/30/2022
34000 4/26/2022
35000 5/24/2022


Looks like the CMP is going to have to step down hard on that gas pedal as they have a little catching up to do. Still 400 or so short of the predictions. Patience is a virtue no doubt.
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  #584  
Old 07-23-2021, 11:18 AM
muddy muddy is offline
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: NY
Posts: 99
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Excellent data. Any chance you could project the trend line out past #24000?

I am wondering if I will get my call while I am at Camp Perry in a few weeks (238xx). Need to plan accordingly and this will help!

thanks again- muddy
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  #585  
Old 07-23-2021, 11:40 AM
CPO-Sharky CPO-Sharky is offline
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: PA
Posts: 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yoteman View Post
Looks like the CMP is going to have to step down hard on that gas pedal as they have a little catching up to do. Still 400 or so short of the predictions. Patience is a virtue no doubt.
probably the 4th of July week got them behind but of course since my number is about to come up they are not doing 50 a day anymore.
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  #586  
Old 07-23-2021, 02:54 PM
jeeperbob jeeperbob is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Vail, AZ
Posts: 982
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After seeing more than 350 numbers past my Wife's RGN, she sent an email. She got a reply that our phone had no voice mail and an email was sent on July 9th. We didn't see an email or call on caller id but stranger things have been reported. They asked for updated ffl info so we called to send that and called Monique to respond. Got her voice mail and left message. Things do slip thru the cracks so if you think you should, send an email to inquire. Her RGN is 23310.
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  #587  
Old 07-23-2021, 03:21 PM
Fenris_Bane Fenris_Bane is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muddy View Post
Excellent data. Any chance you could project the trend line out past #24000?

I am wondering if I will get my call while I am at Camp Perry in a few weeks (238xx). Need to plan accordingly and this will help!

thanks again- muddy
Well, I update my data in Excel every couple of days and this is what I have shown on my trend line.

24000 contact at July 26, 2021.
25000 contact at Aug 23, 2021.

The trend line hasn't correct for the apparent slowing of contact for the past 2 weeks.

It the slowing trend continues then a better trend would be,

24000 contact at Aug. 10 2021.
25000 contact at Sep. 10, 2021.

The average monthly day contacts were,

54 per day in Apr.
52 per day in May
52 per day in June
48 per day in July.

This is based on 248 reported contacts.

Last edited by Fenris_Bane; 07-23-2021 at 03:23 PM.
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  #588  
Old 07-23-2021, 04:06 PM
GeoDes GeoDes is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Posts: 4
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Picked mine up today. It is a field grade Colt. Was RGN 23584. Haven’t really had time to go over it yet but looks pretty much like the ones I was used to seeing in my many arms rooms while on active duty.
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  #589  
Old 07-23-2021, 07:53 PM
ivsvs ivsvs is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Landisville, PA
Posts: 125
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23631 Field grade 1944 1911A1 Colt frame, mystery aftermarket slide. Excellent condition for a shooter. I'm tickled pink!
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  #590  
Old 07-24-2021, 03:31 PM
SharpShooter82 SharpShooter82 is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 102
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I kinda hope they slow a bit because my number is low 27k and that would estimate it coming up in the latter part of October. I will be on vacation in the middle of October and would really like to be home for the event[emoji3].

Eric


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