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  #331  
Old 05-16-2021, 01:11 PM
llano52 llano52 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 134
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[QUOTE=junnie;2045387] Damn how many did they manufacture ... total.... couple hundred thousand or more???????

Try 4.3 million.
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  #332  
Old 05-16-2021, 01:56 PM
junnie junnie is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 127
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[QUOTE=llano52;2045636]
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Originally Posted by junnie View Post
Damn how many did they manufacture ... total.... couple hundred thousand or more???????

Try 4.3 million.
Well !!! I'm sure we can track down 1911s that were issued to 5th Marines Nam.

I'm still on my quest for a Belau Wood 5th Marines....
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  #333  
Old 05-17-2021, 02:34 PM
junnie junnie is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 127
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[QUOTE=llano52;2045636]
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Originally Posted by junnie View Post
Damn how many did they manufacture ... total.... couple hundred thousand or more???????

Try 4.3 million.
I was close........ LOL......
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  #334  
Old 05-17-2021, 07:22 PM
FlyingT FlyingT is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 42
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On the idea that random numbers aren't so random - just some thoughts.

As stated before, the sample size of RGNs so far posted (~450) is miniscule compared to the number assigned (12-13k), and unlikely to be a a random sample, making any analysis a bit difficult.

Speculation 1: People who frequent this forum are more likely to be "CMP enthusiasts" who were ready to go when Round 2 dropped, and so a higher proportion of 1/4/2021 applicants than the general population.

Speculation 2: I'll bet if you were to plot a curve of # of orders against the postmark date, the biggest peak would be January 4th and the next biggest would be within a couple days of March 4th. It's just human nature to either pounce or procrastinate.

Speculation 3: People with lower RGNs are more likely to have posted in the "Order" thread because their number is up and so have something to share, they're excited that the day is drawing near, or they're excited to have drawn a lower RGN. With a 30K+ number, no reason for me to post in that thread now and have to dig it up to update it next year when it rings in.

All this might combine to make it look like low RGNs are disproportionately distributed to early packages. Proportionately higher number of forum posters postmarked early and more proportionately low RGNs are posted. As time wears on, we'll start seeing a larger number of higher RGNs posted, and if Speculation 1 is true, many of those will have postmark dates early in the window. Today, 1500 RGNs north of 20k, it seems this is beginning to happen (in the last 2 pages, I see a 2/25 21.7k, a 1/13 25.9k, and a 1/8 32.8k).

Of course, my primary reason for thinking the RGNs were truly random is that CMP says so. Personally, I've got no reason to doubt the CMP folks. They've never done me dirty before. On the contrary, the few things I've ordered before have been as promised or better.

And even if they're not, I've really got nothing to whine about anyhow. Sometime several months from now, I expect to be putting the first rounds down the pipe of a piece of history that will meet or exceed what was promised in return for my cash and application. And only the former of those two items took me significant effort to put together.

Personally I'm hoping I somehow get issued my grandfather's pistol from WWII, and since he didn't record the manufacturer or serial number, I'm going to convince myself that's what I got no matter what shows up at the FFL.

Thanks in advance, CMP!
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  #335  
Old 05-17-2021, 10:10 PM
DP68 DP68 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Atlanta metro
Posts: 92
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I am going to start by saying I really do not have a strong opinion or particularly care all that much about the debate around the veracity of the RGN process, and at the end of the day the RGN we are each assigned is our number, how we got that number is something none of us have any control or influence over.

But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!
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  #336  
Old 05-18-2021, 05:20 AM
Watson Herbusch Watson Herbusch is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
I am going to start by saying I really do not have a strong opinion or particularly care all that much about the debate around the veracity of the RGN process, and at the end of the day the RGN we are each assigned is our number, how we got that number is something none of us have any control or influence over.

But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!
I was totally random with the $20bill I slipped in with my application.
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  #337  
Old 05-18-2021, 07:37 AM
AFChief AFChief is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!
CMP could live stream the whole thing. It would make the NFL Draft look puny!!! We could even get Roger Goodell to announce... hell... everyone boos him anyway. Can you imagine?...

Announcer: "And here is the Commissioner to make the announcement".

Crowd: "BOOOOOOO!!!!"

Commissioner Goodell: "After a trade between CMPMember396 and CMPLurker2552... with the 19,356 pick in the Second Round of the CMP Draft, CMPLurker2552 selects a Field Grade!!!

Crowd: "YAAAAYYYYY!!!"
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  #338  
Old 05-18-2021, 08:14 AM
TN Squire TN Squire is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
I am going to start by saying I really do not have a strong opinion or particularly care all that much about the debate around the veracity of the RGN process, and at the end of the day the RGN we are each assigned is our number, how we got that number is something none of us have any control or influence over.

But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!

To my recollection ó there was one individual that posted he and his wife received sequential numbers. On this post alone, speculation has run rampant that the RGN process was flawed, a sham, not really adhered to, etc. Has it occurred to anyone that the information regarding those sequential numbers is not accurate? The complainers are all assuming this post is accurate, yet the CMP is lying, incompetent, and trying to pull some scam on everyone regarding the RGNs.

Iím inclined to believe the folks at the CMP ó they donít have a dog in this hunt and their info is likely to be accurate.

On the other hand, though, we all know everything ever posted on an Internet forum is gospel.🙄.

Last edited by TN Squire; 05-18-2021 at 08:38 AM.
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  #339  
Old 05-18-2021, 09:24 AM
AtkRWC AtkRWC is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: South Texas
Posts: 28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFChief View Post
CMP could live stream the whole thing. It would make the NFL Draft look puny!!! We could even get Roger Goodell to announce... hell... everyone boos him anyway. Can you imagine?...

Announcer: "And here is the Commissioner to make the announcement".

Crowd: "BOOOOOOO!!!!"

Commissioner Goodell: "After a trade between CMPMember396 and CMPLurker2552... with the 19,356 pick in the Second Round of the CMP Draft, CMPLurker2552 selects a Field Grade!!!

Crowd: "YAAAAYYYYY!!!"
Too funny, you so made my day with a good laugh.
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  #340  
Old 05-18-2021, 10:34 AM
USMA-1982 USMA-1982 is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Fredericksburg VA
Posts: 219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)
Out of curiousity (and for something to do while still waiting for my own RGN) I ran my own random number generation experiment using a random number generator I found randomly on line. I set 20001 as the starting number and 35000 as the ending number for a range of 15000 RGNs.

When you do this, you get two columns of numbers. The first column is the "sequence" or place number running from 1 to 15000. The second column is the randomly generated number, running from 20001 to 35000, but in randomly generated order.

Scanning through the results, I found one instance of consecutive RGNs, and several instances of consecutive RGNs separated by only one place number. There were too many other close calls to even count, i.e. consecutive RGNs within two, three or four place numbers.

As for me (whatever my RGN turns out to be) I'm satisfied that the CMP 1911 RGN process was random, even in spite of one reported instance of one household receiving consecutive RGNs.

Incidentally, I mailed my application on 4 January and I haven't been called yet, so clearly my RGN (whatever it turns out to be) was not a low one.
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