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  #341  
Old 05-17-2021, 10:10 PM
DP68 DP68 is online now
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Atlanta metro
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I am going to start by saying I really do not have a strong opinion or particularly care all that much about the debate around the veracity of the RGN process, and at the end of the day the RGN we are each assigned is our number, how we got that number is something none of us have any control or influence over.

But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!
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  #342  
Old 05-18-2021, 05:20 AM
Watson Herbusch Watson Herbusch is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
I am going to start by saying I really do not have a strong opinion or particularly care all that much about the debate around the veracity of the RGN process, and at the end of the day the RGN we are each assigned is our number, how we got that number is something none of us have any control or influence over.

But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!
I was totally random with the $20bill I slipped in with my application.
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  #343  
Old 05-18-2021, 07:37 AM
AFChief AFChief is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 191
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Originally Posted by DP68 View Post

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!
CMP could live stream the whole thing. It would make the NFL Draft look puny!!! We could even get Roger Goodell to announce... hell... everyone boos him anyway. Can you imagine?...

Announcer: "And here is the Commissioner to make the announcement".

Crowd: "BOOOOOOO!!!!"

Commissioner Goodell: "After a trade between CMPMember396 and CMPLurker2552... with the 19,356 pick in the Second Round of the CMP Draft, CMPLurker2552 selects a Field Grade!!!

Crowd: "YAAAAYYYYY!!!"
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  #344  
Old 05-18-2021, 08:14 AM
TN Squire TN Squire is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
I am going to start by saying I really do not have a strong opinion or particularly care all that much about the debate around the veracity of the RGN process, and at the end of the day the RGN we are each assigned is our number, how we got that number is something none of us have any control or influence over.

But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)

Just imagine if CMP allowed folks to trade up their lower RGNs to those with high numbers, now that would be a fun forum post!!!

To my recollection ó there was one individual that posted he and his wife received sequential numbers. On this post alone, speculation has run rampant that the RGN process was flawed, a sham, not really adhered to, etc. Has it occurred to anyone that the information regarding those sequential numbers is not accurate? The complainers are all assuming this post is accurate, yet the CMP is lying, incompetent, and trying to pull some scam on everyone regarding the RGNs.

Iím inclined to believe the folks at the CMP ó they donít have a dog in this hunt and their info is likely to be accurate.

On the other hand, though, we all know everything ever posted on an Internet forum is gospel.🙄.

Last edited by TN Squire; 05-18-2021 at 08:38 AM.
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  #345  
Old 05-18-2021, 09:24 AM
AtkRWC AtkRWC is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: South Texas
Posts: 28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFChief View Post
CMP could live stream the whole thing. It would make the NFL Draft look puny!!! We could even get Roger Goodell to announce... hell... everyone boos him anyway. Can you imagine?...

Announcer: "And here is the Commissioner to make the announcement".

Crowd: "BOOOOOOO!!!!"

Commissioner Goodell: "After a trade between CMPMember396 and CMPLurker2552... with the 19,356 pick in the Second Round of the CMP Draft, CMPLurker2552 selects a Field Grade!!!

Crowd: "YAAAAYYYYY!!!"
Too funny, you so made my day with a good laugh.
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  #346  
Old 05-18-2021, 10:34 AM
USMA-1982 USMA-1982 is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Fredericksburg VA
Posts: 218
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
But to be fair and objective, the process is going to draw legitimate questions and doubts when things like spouses be assigned sequential numbers arises, that casts reasonable doubt on the RGN process being completely random (where completely random is akin to picking ping pong balls out of a lottery draw machine for example).

Heck, I'd just like to know what my RGN is (insert smile)
Out of curiousity (and for something to do while still waiting for my own RGN) I ran my own random number generation experiment using a random number generator I found randomly on line. I set 20001 as the starting number and 35000 as the ending number for a range of 15000 RGNs.

When you do this, you get two columns of numbers. The first column is the "sequence" or place number running from 1 to 15000. The second column is the randomly generated number, running from 20001 to 35000, but in randomly generated order.

Scanning through the results, I found one instance of consecutive RGNs, and several instances of consecutive RGNs separated by only one place number. There were too many other close calls to even count, i.e. consecutive RGNs within two, three or four place numbers.

As for me (whatever my RGN turns out to be) I'm satisfied that the CMP 1911 RGN process was random, even in spite of one reported instance of one household receiving consecutive RGNs.

Incidentally, I mailed my application on 4 January and I haven't been called yet, so clearly my RGN (whatever it turns out to be) was not a low one.
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  #347  
Old 05-18-2021, 10:57 AM
rickomatic rickomatic is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 16
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In reference to randomness, here is an anecdotal story of how even something set up to be random can, at times, appear not to be.
Years ago when WA state opened up a draw system fo moose hunting, they were going to issue one tag per year for the entire state. The first year the tag was drawn by a woman. It was either the very next year or following year that that exact same woman was drawn again. It was then that the state decided to make the tag a ďonce in a lifetimeĒ tag. So, totally randomness can sometimes appear not to be.
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  #348  
Old 05-18-2021, 11:05 AM
carrguy1 carrguy1 is online now
 
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: PA
Posts: 32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USMA-1982 View Post
Incidentally, I mailed my application on 4 January and I haven't been called yet, so clearly my RGN (whatever it turns out to be) was not a low one.
Iím not here to add fuel to the debate on how random it was or wasnít. I for one trust theyíre doing what they need to be doing the way they need to be doing it. What I am here to say is I mailed mine packet in on 1/4 as well and I have not been called yet either. I am 21780 and, based on what I see in the timeline thread, I think Iíll probably be called soon. Iím just saying not everyone that submitted early, even if they did get a relatively low number, has already been called. Of course if they submitted early and do not get a low number then they definitely will not have been called yet. A buddy of mine submitted on 1/4 as well and already got his.

Your anecdotal experiment with random numbers is interesting and appreciated. Considering how few people that sent packets in actually post here I donít think any of us can say for certain how it all was done nor do I think we need to know. Be patient and I think some cool people will send us all something pretty cool.
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  #349  
Old 05-18-2021, 11:32 AM
DP68 DP68 is online now
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Atlanta metro
Posts: 90
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FWIW, I think it was (and is) in the best interest of everyone involved given the current environment that these pistols' started shipping as soon as possible and get the momentum going and keep it going, much harder to stop a moving train kind of thing (and will let you infer from that what you like).
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  #350  
Old 05-18-2021, 12:24 PM
USMA-1982 USMA-1982 is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Fredericksburg VA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DP68 View Post
FWIW, I think it was (and is) in the best interest of everyone involved given the current environment that these pistols' started shipping as soon as possible and get the momentum going and keep it going, much harder to stop a moving train kind of thing (and will let you infer from that what you like).
I agree, and not complaining at all. I wish I knew my RGN, but confident that CMP will call when it comes up.
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